In a rush? Here's everything you need to know — in less than a minute — about what's happening in the tropics.
A tropical wave approaching Florida and the United States continues to battle dry air and wind shear, but environmental conditions are expected to change, favoring development, within a few days.
The National Hurricane Center said a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while the wave is near Florida or in the area of the Greater Antilles or Bahamas, according to the latest advisory.
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If sustained winds reach 39 mph, it could become Tropical Storm Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
The system has a 60 percent chance of development over the next seven days.
AccuWeather meteorologistssaid there's a chance the system could become a tropical storm over the weekend or early next week.
Although the colored area may look like the Hurricane's Center "cone of concern," the orange area on the agency's tropical outlook map actually signifies where a tropical cyclone could develop.
Tropical cyclone is the generic term that covers all tropical systems, including tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. July 31 as forecasters track the system:
Tropical wave could become tropical depression
A large tropical wave located over the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
While development in the short-term is not anticipated as the system moves over portions of the Greater Antilles, environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development as the system moves generally west-northwest toward the Bahamas and Cuba.
A tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week when the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, or near Florida
Residents in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent.
Storm tracker: Monitor tropical wave as it moves toward Florida
What impact can Florida expect from tropical wave?
Several factors are in play that will influence whether the tropical wave strengthens and where it will go, according to AccuWeather. Bottom line: Residents in the Caribbean and U.S. — including Florida residents on both the east and west coasts and Panhandle — should watch it closely and be prepared.
The tropical wave currently is battling dry air and wind shear as it moves west. Both help prevent development or strengthening of tropical systems. That will change later this week.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva offered two different scenarios for where the wave will go:
First scenario: Under this scenario, which DaSilva said is the most likely path, the "tropical rainstorm" would stay north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and curve up into the Bahamas. Under this scenario, it could get to Florida Friday or Saturday, either getting very close to Florida or staying just offshore, DaSilva said.
Regardless of development, Florida residents along the East Coast should expect rough surf and dangerous rip currents.
"If it does develop, though, you could see wind and heavy rain.
"As it moves north, it could pass close to the Outer Banks or clip the Carolinas and then head out to sea early next week," DaSilva said.
"I could definitely see it strengthen into a tropical storm under this scenario, and I can't discount a hurricane. Although chances are fairly low for a hurricane, waters are plenty warm."
Second scenario: If the tropical wave takes a more southerly route, it could weaken as it interacts with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba before entering the Gulf of Mexico.
"Once it gets into the Gulf, it could strengthen and head into Florida's West Coast or the Panhandle early next week," DaSilva said. Although it would have limited time to regain strength, it could become a tropical storm in the Gulf.
"Everyone from the northern Caribbean to the Bahamas and from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the Carolinas will have to watch this tropical feature closely," AccuWeather forecasters said.
What does the colored area on the NOAA map mean?
The striped areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
No matter where the tropical wave goes, expect surf and seas to build well in advance of it, along with dangerous rip currents, AccuWeather said.
If the system does take a more westerly path, with slower development, then increased rain chances are possible for South Florida beginning Saturday as tropical moisture ahead of this system increases, according to the Florida Department of Emergency Management.
If the system takes a more northerly path, with somewhat quicker development, then South Florida could remain on the drier side of the system."
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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